1. The output of poultry meat increased greatly in the first quarter

On April 16, The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy in the first quarter of 2024. At the press conference, Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the Bureau of Statistics of China, announced the national economic operation data for the first quarter of 2024. Among them, in the first quarter, the output of pig, cattle, sheep and poultry meat was 24.9 million tons, up 1.4% year on year, among which, the output of pork was down 0.4%, and the output of beef, mutton and poultry meat was up 3.6%, 0.1% and 6.1% respectively. Egg production increased by 1.5%.

In the past three years, the poultry industry has shown a steady growth trend in our country. The number of poultry farms has increased year by year, showing the vigorous development of domestic breeding industry. At the same time, poultry meat production has continued to grow to meet the growing demand of domestic and foreign markets. This growth is not only reflected in the quantity, but also reflected in the quality, indicating that the quality of poultry meat in China has been recognized by the majority of consumers.

At the same time, China's poultry consumption is also growing steadily, which reflects the consumer demand for poultry consumption is growing year by year. In terms of import and export, the import volume of poultry meat in China is decreasing year by year, which benefits from the improvement of domestic aquaculture and the improvement of self-sufficiency. On the contrary, the export volume of poultry meat in China has increased year by year, which shows that the competitiveness of poultry meat in the international market has gradually increased.

According to data, from a global perspective, poultry meat has surpassed pork and become the first category. China has become a major producer, importer and consumer of poultry in the world. China's poultry production accounts for 17.6% of the world's total poultry production. China's poultry imports account for 11.2% of the world's poultry exports. Poultry accounts for 26% of China's total meat supply.

On the whole, in the past three years, the overall operation of poultry farming industry in China is good, whether it is from the perspective of volume, output or consumption, it has shown a stable growth trend. At the same time, the import and export data also reflect the strength and potential of China's poultry industry, I believe that in the future, China's poultry industry will have greater space for development.

2. In the first quarter, poultry egg production increased by 1.5%, achieving stable growth

From the supply side, the inventory of laying hens in the first quarter maintained a month-on-month growth trend, mainly due to the continuous production of chicken seedlings in the early stage, although there was a centralized elimination before the Spring Festival, but because the market did not fall deep, the phenomenon of large-scale super washing did not occur, the newly opened production was greater than the elimination amount, and the egg price was up. As of March 2024, there were 1.233 billion laying hens, only lower than the same period in 2016,2019,2020, and higher than other years. At present, the inventory value has recovered to a relatively high position, and there is a potential for accelerated growth in the second quarter. In addition, the current chicken age structure is relatively young, and the egg price is facing greater pressure.

From the point of view of the demand side, the change of egg inventory has a certain seasonal law. Generally speaking, after the Spring Festival, affected by logistics and other factors, the inventory is generally high, and before August, the general inventory is high and low, mainly due to weather factors, especially after the arrival of the southern Meiyu season, the inventory will drop to the low point of the year, and then with the improvement of thermometer humidity, the inventory will rise from low to high, especially after October, the inventory will continue to increase before the Spring Festival. The abnormal changes in inventory generally correspond to the abnormal market, such as the impact of the rise of e-commerce platforms in the first half of 2021, the industry inventory increased to a historical high, and the spot rose to a height that does not belong to its own fundamentals, and the subsequent egg price cliff return. Egg inventory levels in 2024 are expected to be second only to the same period in 2021.